Some under the radar pitchers that will break out in 2023

Bryce Elder (ATL)

23 RHRP/SP GS-9 G-10  

2022 stats - IP 54.0  ERA 3.58 FIP 3.78 ERA+ 129 SO 79 BB 30 

Sinker - 91 T94 Slider - 82 Changeup - 86 

My Analysis: Bryce Elder is a soft tossing 23 yo RHP who projects to be a starter but did appear in one game in relief. Elder features a Maddux like bowling ball sinker however, he could benefit from more speed differential between his sinker and his rarely used changeup. Elder posseses a Slider that has a lot of vertical movement and is kind of slurvy. If he starts using his changeup more heavily it could be effective as an out pitch tunneled with his sinker and changeup or more like a get me over curveball, depends on how comfortable he feels with the pitch.

Trevor Megill (MIN)

28 RHRP G-39

2022 stats - IP 45.0, ERA 4.80, FIP 3.29, ERA+ 81, SO 49, BB 17

Four-seam Fastball - 98 T-102 Curveball - 83 Slider - 89

My Analysis: Like his younger brother Tylor, Trevor Megill is a towering righty featuring an elite fastball with good ride and run. His knuckle-curve has good drop and can be used as a get me over first pitch or as a ground ball pitch with above average spin. If he can learn to keep the fastball up in the zone and the knuckle-curve down as well as throwing in the occasional hard slider he should become a solid late inning option.

Tommy Nance (MIA)

31 RHRP G-35

2022 stats - IP 43.2, ERA 4.33, FIP 3.71, ERA + 94, SO 57, BB 21

Fastball (SI and FF) - 94 T-98 Curveball - 85 Slider - 87

My Analysis - Nance has one of the best curveballs in the game as it placed in the 92nd percentile of curveball spin. It also has a good drop and although it sometimes gets left up in the zone the spin makes it hard to hit. Nance's Fastball velo is above average; he heavily used his sinker in 2022 as he tried to pitch more east to west while the sinker had decent movement, hitters hit .298 off it in 2021 and 2022, while they hit just .227 against his four-seam fastball. I would like him to try a north south approach with the four seam at the top of the zone and the curve at the bottom of the zone. Nance also throws a pretty hard slider that can be effectively thrown in along with the four seam and curveball for speed differential.

Christopher Sánchez

26 LHSP/RP G-15 GS-3

2022 stats - IP 40 ERA 5.63 FIP 4.56 ERA+ 73  SO 35 BB 17

Sinker - 93 T97 Changeup - 84 Slider - 85

My analysis - Sánchez possesses one of the best left handed changeups in the game. Sánchez is in the 97th percentile on extension so his pitches look faster than they are, therefore while his sinker tops out at 97 it appears at around 100 to the batter. Combined with his changeup at 84 and the occasional slider he has a nasty pitch mix. His sinker tunnels well with the changeup and his slider gives him something that moves gloveside.

Justin Lawrence

28 RHRP G-38

2022 stats - IP 42.2 ERA 5.70 FIP 3.39 ERA+ 82 SO 48 BB 22

Sinker - 96 T101 Slider - 82

My analysis - Lawrence drastically improved on his 8.62 ERA in 2021 (although his FIP was only 4.55) with a 5.70 in 2022 with a 3.39 FIP. It seemed he started purposely throwing a bit slower to improve his control with his average sinker velo going from 97.4 in 2021 to 95.3, and in turn his BB/9 went from 10.3 to 4.6. Lawrence still occasionally pumped it up to 99 in 2021 and still has 100+ in the tank. The righty’s slider has proved to be an effective pitch with a .193 BA against, has elite sweep and great speed differential paired with his sinker. Lawrence is a unicorn in the way he is a sidearmer but also throws mid to upper 90s topping out at 101. Something to note is his away numbers are much better than his home number so he would benefit from getting out of Denver.