How the Mets can return Jorge López to his 2022 form


*This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman*




How the Mets can return Jorge López to his 2022 form 

Isaac Groffman



Throughout all of Jorge López's struggles in 2022 (5.95 ERA in 61 games) his stuff was always there. He maintained a 110 stuff+ and an average fastball velocity of 96.8 which is pretty similar to his 2022 number when he was an all star, so why are the results so different?




Lopez was a starting pitching prospect for the Brewers so his pitch mix was a starters pitch mix, featuring five pitches, a sinker, four seam, knuckle-curve, slider, and changeup over his career he has changed their distribution but he has always thrown these five pitches.





I think that López needs to simplify his pitch mix if we look at his pitch distribution charts from 2022  and 2023 (left) we notice some patterns. The most obvious is how he threw his sinker almost half of the time in his all star season of 2022.


2023 pitch distribution

2022 pitch distribution



His 2023 started the same way throwing his sinker 30% of the time and increasing his slider usage, this worked as López did not give up a run for his first 13 appearances of 2023. However, towards the end of may he started throwing his four seam fastball knuckle curve more...


López's four seam (95 stuff+) and curve (87 stuff+) graded out as his worst pitches last year, and un-surprisingly these were the worst months of his season. However, when he returned to the Orioles he went back to his sinker-slider approach and finished the season strong.


As seen in the stuff+ chart above López's sinker (127 stuff+, one of the best in the Majors) and slider (110 stuff+) are by far his best pitches and he succeeds the most when he throws them more. So as spring training continues I will be keeping an eye on his pitch mix. 


One final thought, there is a small chance that López won't get back to his 2022 form, there are some concerning signs. Like how his fastball velo dropped from 97.7 on average to 96.8 from 2022 to 2023. However, he has shown all star potential I believe he still has that in him.

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