Do the Mets already have their dominant lefty reliever? An analysis of Nate Lavender, one of the most unique relief prospects in baseball
*This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman*
Do the Mets have the next dominant lefty reliever?
An analysis of Nate Lavender, one of the most unique relief prospects in baseball.
In the recent conversation around the Mets last two bullpen spots, one name has been generating quite a buzz lately – Nate Lavender. Lavender is incredibly unique and I believe he can make a serious impact for the Mets in 2024.
Lavender's best pitch is his fastball, he is able to get whiffs on it even though it typically ranges from 91 to 94 miles per hour, but because of his elite extension his fastball gains perceived velocity, making it appear up to 3 miles per hour faster, making 94 look like 97. Like Billy Wagner when Lavender strides down the mound with his short-arm action and the ball jumps out of his hand making hitters uncomfortable.
Lavender's three-quarter arm slot combined with high backspin gives the pitch elite vertical break or what's often described as "rising" action. You don't usally see this with left handed pitchers the most notable execptions are MLB lefties like Colin Poche of the Tampa Bay Rays (fastball mechanics comparision below), Nestor Cortes, and Shota Imanaga. All of them, like Lavender are crafty and use methods like hesitation steps to keep hitters off balance in order to be able to throw their fastballs by them.
What truly sets Lavender apart, however, isn't just his fastball but his mentality on the mound. Described by scouts as having a "bulldog" approach, Lavender challenges hitters from both sides of the plate with his fastball, showcasing a level of confidence and grit that makes me think he will thrive in high leverage situations.
In college and his first few professional seasons Lavender was a two-pitch pitcher, featuring a fastball and curveball. I believe he could succeed in majors by just throwing these two pitches but he has also added a changeup to his arsenal, a pitch he picked up from Brooks Raley during last year's Spring Training.
Lavender has also been mixing in a cutter this spring training, this could be also be a slider but it doesn't drop very much he throws it pretty hard. The cutter is a hot pitch right now and given how Lavender's four-seam fastball has so much arm-side run that it often gets classified as a sinker it makes sense to give him a pitch that moves gloveside as a weapon against lefties, or if he can command it well enough inside, against righties. However, I am a big fan of pitchers having simple arsenals I don't think that at this point in his career, with how good Lavender's fastball is he needs four pitches.
This constant toying with his arsenal says a lot about Lavender, he already had two elite pitches, but he has a drive to get even better.
As the 2024 Spring Training unfolds, Nate Lavender has already begun making his mark with the Mets. With an impressive performance that includes pitching three scoreless innings while striking out seven batters, he's proving himself as a formidable force on the mound. While I still don't think he will make the major league bullpen out of camp (although everyday that becomes more likely) he will most likely be the first man up if there is an injury.
There is no way that Lavender is not impressing Mets brass with his agressive mentality and constant drive to improve as well as is nasty stuff. Everything about him is unique from the way he pitches to the properties of his fastball. I believe the he has the ceiling of a set up man and he will no doubt make an impact for the Mets this season.
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