Mets Pitching Analysis

*This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman* What is Shintaro Fujinami's path back to the majors?  Isaac Groffman On Saturday news that seemed inevitable broke - Shintaro Fujinami will start the 2024 in the minors. Me and many others assumed that after he signed a $3.5 million contract Fuji would be a lock for the MLB bullpen, but after a rough spring training it is clear he needs more work. I believe that Fuji is not as far from reaching his peak as some people think. However, the environment he was in for much of last season was the reason he was unable to consistently preform.   I believe that Fuji is not as far from reaching his peak as some people think. However, the environment he was in for much of last season was not conducive to sustained success. Here are few things I think he can do in the minors to improve: 1. Simplify his pitch mix - Most pitchers in Japan learn to throw 5 or 6 pitches, whereas in Am

   *This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman* My 2024 Mets pitching breakout picks Isaac Groffman 1. Paul Gervase  2. José Butto  3. Christian Scott  Explanations for each below. 1. Most Mets fans haven’t heard of Paul Gervase, but he ended his season as a key part of the AA Rumble Ponies playoff run. At 6’10” his fastball which already tops out at 97-98 appears even faster. He could very easily be a significant part of the Mets bullpen this year. 2. Mets fans know José Buttos name but most don’t realize his potential. In 2023 Butto showed flashes of what he could be: a very good #2. Butto dominated using a revamped slider and he still has his signature changeup which scouts think can be a serious weapon in the MLB. 3. Christian Scott is my favorite Mets pitching prospect at the moment. His 4 seam fastball touches 98 with great run. Scott will likely start the year in AAA and I could easily seem him making signific

   *This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman* How can the Mets maximize Adam Ottavino's pitch arsenal in 2024? Isaac Groffman In 2023 Ottavino really relied on his sinker and decreased his sweeper usage significantly. I find this interesting because it was still just as effective as it has been in the past (.165 BAA in 2022 and .226 in 2023). However, if we look into how the pitch actually profiles it tells a different story according to www.mlbpitchprofiler.com Ottavino's sweeper had a 84 Stuff+ (on a scale of 100 as average) in 2022 and a 79 in 2023.  Whereas his sinker had a 126 Stuff+ in 2022 and 114 in 2023. It is very possible that the analytically minded Ottavino is aware of this and that is why he is throwing his sweeper less. Ottavino also started throwing his cutter more than ever (15% of the time) and this pitch has a 114 Stuff+ technically making it his second best pitch last year. With his velo

  *This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman* What is the future of Tylor Megill? Isaac Groffman With new young pitchers coming up through the mets system, its easy to forget about Tylor Megill. However, I still think he could still be useful for the Mets in 2024. But it will have to be in a very different role. Megill has certainly shown potential as a starter. We all remember his dominant 2022 opening day start in DC, where his fastball topped out at 99 and he had a nasty slider and changeup. But then injuries struck and he barely pitched in the second half of 2022. As we had to sit through one mediocre start after another in the first half of 2023, we thought that we would never see the Megill from the first half of 2022 again. But in the second half of 2023things started to slowly change, it started with getting his velocity back. His slider was getting more whiffs and of course he. developed his his "Ameri

*This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman* Could this former top prospect be the mets 5th starter? Isaac Groffman As the Mets try to recover and look within to find a new 5th starter after Senga's injury, the most likely options are Megill, Butto, Luchessi, and Kranick. While the first two are more likely to get oppurtunities because of their   experience, Kranick intruiges me the most. As recently as 2021 Max Kranick was ranked as the Pirates #26 prospect. He was projected as a potential rotation piece with a plus fastball, slider and command. Kranick was never able to reach his potential with the Pirates due to injury but at 26 now he has a chance on the mets. I see Kranicks fastball as the best pitch in his reperoire. It has gained velocity, as it was known to top out at 94 in the minors but touched 97-98 in the big leagues. Kranicks slider, which is a tight, high velocity offering with a bit of sweep has ha

*This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman* How the Mets can return Jorge López to his 2022 form  Isaac Groffman Throughout all of Jorge López's struggles in 2022 (5.95 ERA in 61 games) his stuff was always there. He maintained a 110 stuff+ and an average fastball velocity of 96.8 which is pretty similar to his 2022 number when he was an all star, so why are the results so different? Lopez was a starting pitching prospect for the Brewers so his pitch mix was a starters pitch mix, featuring five pitches, a sinker, four seam, knuckle-curve, slider, and changeup over his career he has changed their distribution but he has always thrown these five pitches. I think that López needs to simplify his pitch mix if we look at his pitch distribution charts from 2022  and 2023 (left) we notice some patterns. The most obvious is how he threw his sinker almost half of the time in his all star season of 2022. 2023 pitch distri

*This article is an expanded version of a thread on Twitter/X follow me there - https://twitter.com/isaacgroffman* Do the Mets have the next dominant lefty reliever? Isaac Groffman An analysis of Nate Lavender, one of the most unique relief prospects in baseball.  In the recent conversation around the Mets last two bullpen spots, one name has been generating quite a buzz lately – Nate Lavender. Lavender is incredibly unique and I believe he can make a serious impact for the Mets in 2024.  Lavender's best pitch is his fastball, he is able to get whiffs on it even though it typically ranges from 91 to 94 miles per hour, but because of his elite extension his fastball gains perceived velocity, making it appear up to 3 miles per hour faster, making 94 look like 97. Like Billy Wagner when Lavender strides down the mound with his short-arm action and the ball jumps out of his hand making hitters uncomfortable.  Lavender's three-quarter arm slot combined with high backspin gives the p